Abstract
European export credit agencies are held back by capital limits, country exposure ceilings and reinsurance availability when European firms compete for strategic projects abroad. Using secondary data, surveys of 14 agencies and 19 interviews, the paper estimates that an EU guarantee could unlock about €7.7 billion of additional agency-backed export finance a year, or €50–55 billion over the next multiannual financial framework. Most of this would be new business, concentrated in Africa, Asia, Latin America, transport and climate and energy, in line with Global Gateway.
